Global EV Outlook 2020 – Avere-France

Global EV Outlook
2020
Entering the decade of electric drive?

Global EV Outlook 2020

Abstract

Abstract

The Global EV Outlook is an annual publication that identifies and discusses recent

developments in electric mobility across the globe. It is developed with the support

of the members of the Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI). Combining historical analysis

with projections to 2030, the report examines key areas of interest such as electric

vehicle and charging infrastructure deployment, ownership cost, energy use, carbon

dioxide emissions and battery material demand. This edition features case studies on

transit bus electrification in Kolkata (India), Shenzhen (China), Santiago (Chile) and

Helsinki (Finland). The report includes policy recommendations that incorporate

learning from frontrunner markets to inform policy makers and stakeholders that

consider policy frameworks and market systems for electric vehicle adoption. This

edition also features an update on the performance and costs of batteries. It further

extends the life cycle analysis conducted in Global EV Outlook 2019, assessing the

technologies and policies that will be needed to ensure that EV battery end-of-life

treatment contributes to the fullest extent to sustainability and CO2 emissions

reductions objectives. Finally, it analyses how off-peak electricity demand charging,

dynamic controlled charging (V1G) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) could mitigate the

impact of EVs on peak demand, facilitate the integration of variable renewables and

reduce electricity generation capacity needs.

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Global EV Outlook 2020

Acknowledgements

Acknowledgements

The Global EV Outlook 2020 was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy (ETP)

Division of the Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks (STO) of the

International Energy Agency (IEA), under the direction of Timur Gül, Head of the ETP

Division. Marine Gorner co-ordinated the analysis and production of the report.

This report was collectively developed by (in alphabetical order): Thibaut Abergel, Till

Bunsen, Marine Gorner, Pierre Leduc, Sarbojit Pal, Leonardo Paoli, Seshadri

Raghavan, Jacopo Tattini, Jacob Teter, Sadanand Wachche and Per-Anders Widell.

Hanjiro Ambrose, Jessica Dunn and Margaret Slattery, from the University of

California Davis, supported with primary research, drafting and other contributions

to Chapter 4. Shahmeer Mohsin (Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble) also provided

valuable contributions.

The development of this analysis benefited from support provided by the following

IEA colleagues: Nicolas Beltran Achury, Hiroyuki Fukui, Maximilian Jarrett, George

Kamiya, Rebecca McKimm, Alison Pridmore, Alan Searl, Siddharth Singh, Lei Xiang,

Chengwu Xu and Xiaotong Yang on the national and regional policy sections in

Chapter 2; George Kamiya on the micromobility and aviation sections in Chapter 1;

Jose Miguel Bermundez Menendez on the fuel cell electric vehicles section in Chapter

1; Zoe Hungerford on Chapter 5.

Mechthild Wörsdörfer, Director of STO, provided encouragement and support

throughout the project. Valuable comments and feedback were also provided by

other senior management and colleagues within the IEA, in particular Keisuke

Sadamori, Laszlo Varro, Apostolos Petropoulos, Julien Armijo and Zoe Hungerford.

The report was edited by Debra Justus.

Sebastián Galarza Suárez (Centro Mario Molina Chile); Alekhya Datta, Ram Krishnan

and Shashank Vyas (TERI); Preet Gill, Scott Moura, Lin Osseiran and Raja Sengupta

(University of California Berkeley); Xiuli Zhang (University of California Davis); Reijo

Mäkinen, Tommi Muona, Marko Paakkinen and Mikko Pihlatie (VTT Finland); Rakhi

Basu, Annika Berlin and Chen Yang (World Bank) and Ivan Jaques (World

Bank/ESMAP) provided essential inputs and review for the development of the

electric bus section in Chapter 2. The members of Project ReCell (EIT InnoEnergy):

Attabik Awan, Anqi Shi, Robin Barkhausen, Gustavo Gomes Pereira, Piotr Grudzień,

Thomas Kürstgens, Sameer Chourasia, Iryna Samarukha, and Jane Christina Irawan,

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Global EV Outlook 2020

Acknowledgements

provided inputs, review, and support for the development of Chapter 4. Matteo

Muratori (United States National Renewable Energy Laboratory) provided support for

the development of Chapter 5.

The following individuals have contributed to developing the activities of the Electric

Vehicles Initiative (EVI) on behalf of their governments by providing data and

assistance, and reviewing this report: Ekta Meena Bibra, Carol Burelle, Aaron Hoskin,

Thierry Speiss, Sylvain Roussel and Paula Vieira (Canada); Gabriel Prudencio and

Daniela Soler (Chile); Jiayu You (China), Zheng Yali, Hui Lai Zhang, and Jian Liu

(China); Pentti Puhakka, Mikko Pihlatie and Marko Paakkinen (Finland); Cédric

Bozonnat, Clarisse Durand and Sylène Lasfargues (France); Gereon Meyer and Birgit

Hofmann (Germany); Abhay Bakre (India); Tatsuya Nagai and Yoshinobu Sato (Japan);

Sonja Munnix, Gerben Passier (Netherlands) and Sacha Scheffer (Netherlands);

Mitchel Trezona-lecomte and Nesta Jones (New Zealand); Marianne Dalgard,

Ingeborg Kjærnli, Daniel Thorsell (Norway); Mia Abramsson, Lina Kinning, Martina

Wikström (Sweden); Rob Gould, Bob Moran and Tim Ward (United Kingdom). Other

contributors to data collection include Miranda Lello (Australia); Ricardo Zomer

(Brazil) with the help of Bruno Carvalho Doberstein de Magalhães (GIZ); Baldur

Petursson, Sigurdur Ingi Fridleifsson, Jón Äsgeir H. Porvaldsson and Anna Lilja

Oddsdóttir (Iceland); Alok Ray (Society of manufacturers of electric vehicles, India);

Andi Novianto (Indonesia); Francesco Vellucci (Italy); Hwanjung Jung (Korea);

Huzaimi Omar (Malaysia); Luis Filipe and Olinda Pereira (Portugal); Hiten Parmar

(South Africa); Stephan Walter (Switzerland); Yossapong Lao (Thailand) and Michael

Berube, Steven Boyd and James Miller (United States).

Dan Dorner, Sarbojit Pal, Rui Luo, Ellina Levina and Christian Zinglersen from the

Clean Energy Ministerial secretariat were also instrumental to facilitate the

development of EVI activities and providing relevant inputs to the publication.

Peer reviewers provided essential feedback to improve the quality of the report. They

include:

Xavier Moreau (Altergrids); Ryan Melsert (American Battery Metals); Qiang Dai, Jarod

C. Kelly and Michael Wang (Argonne National Laboratory); Sohail Hasnie (Asian

Development Bank); Robert Spicer (BP plc); Cécile Goubet (AVERE France); Cristiano

Façanha (CALSTART); Mridula D. Bharadwaj (Center for Study of Science, Technology

and Policy); Makoto Dave Yoshida, Tomoya Imazu, Utaka Kamishima, Yasuo

Matsunaaga and Tomoko Blech (CHAdeMO Association); Patrick Jochem (DLR);

Daniel Noll (Edison Electric Institute); Ana Quelhas (Energias de Portugal SA); Huiming

Gong (Energy Foundation China); Céline Cluzel (Element Energy); Chiara dalla Chiesa

(Enel X); James Copping, Panagiota Dilara, Filip Francois, Maurizio Maggiore, Julija

Sakovica and Cesar Santos (European Commission); Viktor Irle and Roland Irle (EV-

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Volumes); Renske Schuitmaker (Fastned); Patrick Ploetz (Fraunhofer Institute);

Ramón Morales Balcázar (Fundacion Tantí – Observatorio Plurinacional de Salares

Andinos); Charlotte Argue (Geotab); Dennis Knese (GIZ); Mathy Stanislaus and

Jonathan Eckart (Global Battery Alliance); Filippo Berardi and Ming Yang (Global

Environment Facility); Kaoru Horie and Yuichiro Tanabe (Honda); Francisco Laverón

Simavilla (Iberdrola); Nicholas Lutsey and Dale Hall (International Council on Clean

Transportation); Jérôme Sabathier (IFPEN); Cristina Corchero García (IREC); Nicholas

Wagner and Yong Chen (IRENA); Pierpaolo Cazzola (International Transport Forum);

Gen Saito, Hiroyuki Kaneko and Yutaka Fukunaga (Nissan); Kevin Johnsen and Svend

Soyland (Nordic Energy Research); Emma Wiesner (Northvolt); Luca Maiotti and

Benjamin Katz (OECD); Marcello Contestabile (Qatar Environment & Energy Research

Institute); Hannah E. Murdock, Rana Adib and Duncan Gibb (REN21); Christell

Galbrun-Noel (Schneider Electric); Martin Haigh (Shell); Nikola Medimorec (SLOCAT

Partnership on Sustainable, Low Carbon Transport); Thalis P. V. Zis (Technical

University of Denmark); Naotaka Shibata (TEPCO); Amy Davidsen, Sandra Roling and

James Beard (The Climate Group); Hiroyuki Fukui, Max Parness and Risa Oya (Toyota);

Samuel Karslake (UK BEIS); Fabrice Stassin, Jan Tytgat and Stéphane Levasseur

(Umicore); Rob de Jong and Alexander Koerner (UNEP); James Turnure, John Maples

and Mark Schipper (United States Energy Information Administration); Cabell Hodge,

Jeffrey Logan and Matteo Muratori (United States National Renewable Energy

Laboratory); Sebastián Castellanos, Vishant Kothari, Ryan Sclar and Lulu Xue (World

Resources Institute); Francesco Vellucci, Gerfried Jungmeier and James Miller as

members of the Hybrid and Electric Vehicles Technology Collaboration Programme;

Daniela Soler Lavin, Gideon Friedmann and Magnus Lindgren as members of the

Advanced Motor Fuels Technology Collaboration Programme and members of the

Clean and Efficient Combustion Technology Collaboration Programme.

The development of this report was facilitated by contributions from EVI countries

and the Hewlett Foundation for the co-ordination of the Electric Vehicles Initiative by

the IEA.

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